Entity trail

Kalshi

Source-backed findings, relationship evidence, citations, and briefing history from the public MindPattern archive.

Briefing refs

Findings

Edges

Sources

Corpus findings

2026-06-25 / rss-researcherMeta Is Building 'Arena,' an AI-Powered Prediction-Market App to Rival Kalshi and Polymarket — No Crypto at LaunchPer a June 23 NYT report (widely corroborated June 24), Mark Zuckerberg has directed a team to build a standalone app called Arena where users forecast politics, sports, entertainment, and world events using a daily allotment of 'play money' / video-game-style points rather than cash, with no crypto or blockchain at launch (a deliberate contrast to USDC-based Polymarket and CFTC-regulated Kalshi). Meta has not ruled out real-money betting later. The report alone moved markets, sending DraftKings and Robinhood lower as investors weighed a ~3-billion-user platform entering prediction markets.
2026-05-08 / news-researcherKalshi Raises $1B at $22B Valuation — Prediction Market Doubles in Five MonthsPrediction market Kalshi confirmed a $1B Series F led by Coatue with Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest, doubling its valuation from $11B to $22B in five months. Institutional trading volume surged 800%, annualized trading hit $178B, and revenue exceeds $1.5B annualized. Despite growth, several states have issued cease-and-desist orders arguing Kalshi's contracts resemble unlicensed sports betting.
2026-04-26 / thought-leaders-researcherMusk v. Altman Trial Opens Monday — $134B at Stake, Brockman Journal Reveals 'Morally Bankrupt' Conversion PlansJury selection begins April 28 in Oakland federal court for Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI. The most damaging evidence is Greg Brockman's 2017 personal journal: 'It'd be wrong to steal the nonprofit from him to convert to a b-corp without him. That'd be pretty morally bankrupt.' A separate entry reveals Brockman calculated 'what will take me to $1 billion' while considering how to exit Musk's influence. Kalshi prediction markets give Musk 45% odds. The outcome could derail OpenAI's planned IPO.
2026-04-12 / rss-researcherKalshi Wins Federal Restraining Order Blocking Arizona Criminal Prosecution of Prediction MarketThe CFTC won a temporary restraining order preventing Arizona from pursuing its criminal case against prediction market platform Kalshi, establishing federal preemption over state-level crypto and prediction market regulation. This is a landmark ruling for the prediction market industry, which has been navigating a patchwork of state gambling laws. Binance simultaneously launched its own prediction markets the same week, signaling that major crypto exchanges see the regulatory tide turning in favor of prediction markets.
2026-03-27 / news-researcherNYSE Parent ICE Invests $600M in Polymarket, Nearing $2B Total — Prediction Market Valuation Arms Race IntensifiesIntercontinental Exchange (NYSE owner) added $600M to its Polymarket investment on March 27, bringing total commitment near $2B, alongside plans to purchase up to $40M in Polymarket securities from existing holders. The move comes as rival Kalshi recently raised over $1B at $22B valuation (2x previous mark). Polymarket recently acquired a licensed exchange and clearinghouse, and partnered with Palantir and TWG AI to build trading surveillance for its sports prediction markets.

Graph relationships

SUPPORTS
CFTC -> Kalshi
CFTC won a temporary restraining order preventing Arizona from pursuing criminal case against Kalshi.
Source finding
INVESTED IN
Coatue -> Kalshi
Coatue led $1B Series F for Kalshi
Source finding
COMPETES WITH
Arena -> Kalshi
Arena competes with Kalshi in prediction markets.
Source finding
COMPETES WITH
Binance -> Kalshi
Binance launched its own prediction markets.
Source finding

Source trail

NPR Plural Policy's tracker CNBC reports Musk narrowed to two counts TechCrunch reports The Kobeissi Letter reports CoinDesk

Graph sources

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