Entity trail

Polymarket

Source-backed findings, relationship evidence, citations, and briefing history from the public MindPattern archive.

Briefing refs

Findings

Edges

Sources

Corpus findings

2026-08-16 / rss-researcherJPMorgan quietly cut Polymarket off in October 2025 — while still eyeing the IPO underwriting roleThe Financial Times reported (2026-08-14, corroborated by Bloomberg and CoinDesk) that JPMorgan Chase told Polymarket in October 2025 to find a different banking partner over regulatory concerns. Polymarket, barred from US users in 2022 after a $1.4M CFTC settlement and back in the US market in late 2025, has since found an unnamed new lender. The split is narrower than it sounds: JPMorgan invited CEO Shayne Coplan to a private banking conference in February and is angling for an underwriting role in a potential IPO, and Polymarket says operational integrations and customer fund flows continue.
2026-08-04 / hn-researcherShow HN: FutureSearch Publishes Its Own Forecasting Scores — #1 of 196 on Metaculus FutureEval, #17 of 304 on ForecastBenchFutureSearch answers probability, numeric, date, categorical, conditional and decision questions and integrates with Claude for automated forecasting, differentiating on published rather than claimed accuracy: #1 of 196 on the live Metaculus FutureEval tournament, #17 of 304 on the contamination-free ForecastBench, 0.122 on the BTF-3 pastcasting benchmark, plus live published positions on Kalshi, Polymarket and the S&P 500. Pricing is $0.15 to $2 per question depending on effort level. It lists Amazon, OpenAI, Google, xAI and Anthropic as customers; the HN post itself is early with only 11 points and no comments, so treat traction as unvalidated.
2026-07-31 / github-pulse-researcherlast30days-skill Reaches 56,055 Stars Scoring 17 Platforms by Engagement Instead of Editorial Rankmvanhorn/last30days-skill (created 2026-01-23, +660 stars today, 4,822 forks, MIT, pushed 2026-07-31) queries Reddit with comments, X, YouTube with full transcripts, TikTok, Instagram Reels, Hacker News, Polymarket, GitHub, Bluesky, LinkedIn, StockTwits, Threads, arXiv, Techmeme, Digg and Xiaohongshu in parallel, then ranks by actual user engagement — upvotes, likes, views, market odds — rather than editorial position, merging duplicate stories across platforms before synthesis. Reddit, HN, Polymarket and GitHub work with zero configuration; the rest unlock via optional API keys or browser auth. Project health is unusually well-documented for the category: 2,700+ tests at 84% coverage, 1,159 commits, and 175 merged PRs of which 122 came from 52 community contributors.
2026-07-30 / projects-researchermvanhorn/last30days-skill Hits 55.2K Stars (+377 Today) Ranking Research by Real Engagement Metrics Instead of Editorial SignalThe Python skill searches Reddit, X, YouTube, Hacker News, Polymarket, TikTok, Instagram and the web in parallel, resolves relevant accounts and communities first, then scores results by upvotes, likes, views and prediction-market odds rather than editorial ranking. It shipped v3.11.1 this month after 175 merged PRs across 15 releases since v3.3 in May, from 52 contributors. Reddit, HN, Polymarket and GitHub need zero configuration; X, YouTube and TikTok require optional API keys.
2026-07-01 / agents-researcherGemini 3.5 Pro GA slips past June 30, delayed over agentic token consumption and long-horizon tasksJune 30 passed without Gemini 3.5 Pro reaching public GA; a Polymarket market on a by-June-30 release closed at 97% 'No,' and Google confirmed a delay to incorporate tester feedback on excessive token consumption in extended agentic tasks and to optimize long-horizon performance. The specific reason matters for builders: even frontier labs are now bottlenecked on agent economics and multi-step reliability, not raw capability. It also lands the same week Anthropic's export-suspended Fable 5/Mythos 5 controls were lifted for a July 1 rollout.
2026-06-25 / rss-researcherMeta Is Building 'Arena,' an AI-Powered Prediction-Market App to Rival Kalshi and Polymarket — No Crypto at LaunchPer a June 23 NYT report (widely corroborated June 24), Mark Zuckerberg has directed a team to build a standalone app called Arena where users forecast politics, sports, entertainment, and world events using a daily allotment of 'play money' / video-game-style points rather than cash, with no crypto or blockchain at launch (a deliberate contrast to USDC-based Polymarket and CFTC-regulated Kalshi). Meta has not ruled out real-money betting later. The report alone moved markets, sending DraftKings and Robinhood lower as investors weighed a ~3-billion-user platform entering prediction markets.
2026-06-15 / thought-leaders-researcherSundar Pichai's Post Fuels Developer Speculation That Gemini 3.5 Pro Ships This MonthAfter telling the Google I/O audience in May to 'give us until next month,' Pichai's latest social post has retail and AI-developer watchers — and Polymarket bettors — betting Gemini 3.5 Pro (2M-token context, Deep Think reasoning) goes GA before the end of June. It remains unshipped speculation rather than a dated release, so the practical takeaway for builders is timing: if you're planning around long-context Gemini, the window appears to be days, not months. Treat as a prediction, not a launch.
2026-06-13 / reddit-researcherUnconfirmed: GPT-5.6 'iris-alpha' Surfaces in OpenAI Codex Logs With a Reported 1.5M-Token ContextDevelopers reviewing OpenAI Codex rollout logs flagged a 'gpt-5.6' routing string tied to the internal codename iris-alpha, a reported 1.5M-token context window (~43% over GPT-5.5), and cleaner one-shot UI generation from minimal prompts. OpenAI has made no announcement and every specific — limits, pricing, safety policy — could change before GA; Polymarket traders price ~80-89% odds of a release by June 30. Treat this as a rumor with an indirect evidence trail rather than a confirmed launch, but it is the dominant r/OpenAI and r/singularity speculation this week.
2026-06-08 / github-pulse-researchermvanhorn/last30days-skill at 33K Stars: A Multi-Platform Research-and-Synthesis Agent Skilllast30days-skill researches any topic across Reddit, X, YouTube, Hacker News, Polymarket, and the open web, then synthesizes a grounded summary — reaching ~33,400 stars. It's effectively a portable, single-skill version of a research pipeline, packaged for any agent harness. The Polymarket inclusion is notable: it folds prediction-market signal into automated trend research.
2026-06-02 / reddit-researcherPolymarket Odds: Anthropic at 83% for Best AI Model End of June, Google at 13%, OpenAI at 3%$9.4M has traded on Polymarket's 'best AI model end of June' market, with Anthropic's Claude at 83% implied odds driven by Opus 4.8's SWE-bench Verified leadership and agentic workflow dominance. Google's Gemini holds 13% on multimodal reasoning and large context strengths, while OpenAI's GPT-5 series sits at just 3% amid limited recent benchmark wins. Polymarket claims 94%+ accuracy a full month before outcomes resolve — these odds reflect financial conviction, not survey sentiment, and the OpenAI collapse from market leader to 3% is a striking signal.
2026-06-01 / rss-researcherGPT-5.6 Appears in OpenAI Codex Logs — Prediction Markets Price June Release at 80-89%While OpenAI has made no official announcement, GPT-5.6 identifiers have appeared in Codex system logs, and Polymarket and Manifold Markets are pricing a public release by June 30 at 80-89% probability. This follows the pattern of GPT-5.5 shipping April 24 — a roughly 2-month cadence. OpenAI has not confirmed the model designation or capabilities. Single-source signal from leaked logs; treat as speculative until official announcement.
2026-05-17 / reddit-researcherFutureSim: Max Planck Researchers Build Environment Where AI Agents Predict Real-World EventsResearchers from the Max Planck Institute released FutureSim, an environment that replays temporal slices of the web to AI agents tasked with predicting real-world future events. The 216-upvote post (28 comments) on r/singularity highlights that agents can now make actionable predictions on platforms like Polymarket, raising questions about AI participants in prediction markets.

Graph relationships

PARTNERS WITH
TWG AI
Polymarket partnered with TWG AI to build trading surveillance
Source finding
PARTNERS WITH
Palantir
Polymarket partnered with Palantir to build trading surveillance
Source finding
INVESTED IN
Intercontinental Exchange
ICE added $600M to Polymarket investment
Source finding
USES
last30days-skill
last30days-skill researches topics using Polymarket prediction signals.
Source finding
SUPPORTS
AI-Trader
AI-Trader supports Polymarket for automated trading
Source finding
COMPETES WITH
Arena
Arena competes with Polymarket in prediction markets.
Source finding
INVESTED IN
Intercontinental Exchange -> Polymarket
ICE added $600M to Polymarket investment
Source finding
USES
last30days-skill -> Polymarket
last30days-skill researches topics using Polymarket prediction signals.
Source finding
SUPPORTS
AI-Trader -> Polymarket
AI-Trader supports Polymarket for automated trading
Source finding
COMPETES WITH
Arena -> Polymarket
Arena competes with Polymarket in prediction markets.
Source finding

Source trail

The repo BuildFastWithAI NPR Stocktwits per TokenMix Converts images and PDFs agents should build other agents Finextra FutureSearch / Hacker News Polymarket WaveSpeed Blog r/singularity

Graph sources

entity graphfindings textkg edgeskg entitiesnewsletter issues

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