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Tomasz Tunguz

Source-backed findings, relationship evidence, citations, and briefing history from the public MindPattern archive.

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2026-04-18 / news-researcherThe Beginning of Scarcity in AI: Half of US Data Center Builds Delayed or CanceledTom Tunguz's analysis (183 HN points) argues AI is entering a scarcity phase, as Anthropic limits Mythos to ~40 organizations and compute requirements double every 3-4 months. Tom's Hardware reports that of ~140 large-scale US data center projects (12GW), only a third are under construction — the rest are stuck due to transformer and switchgear lead times stretching to 5 years. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft plan to spend $650B in 2026 on AI capacity that the power grid cannot yet support.
2026-04-12 / saas-disruption-researcherTomasz Tunguz: $2.9 Trillion IPO Float Problem — SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic Need More Capital Than Entire US IPO Market Raised 2016-2025Tomasz Tunguz's analysis reveals the structural impossibility of standard IPO floats for the Big 3: at 15-20% float, they'd need $432-576 billion from public markets in a single window, while the entire US IPO market raised only $469 billion from 2016 to 2025. Tunguz predicts tiny 3-8% floats, which would make them ineligible for S&P 500 inclusion (requires 50% public float). When floats eventually expand, passive index funds managing $20 trillion must rebalance, creating cascading sell pressure on existing mega-caps. For SaaS companies in the IPO pipeline, this capital drain could freeze secondary listings.

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The Beginning of Scarcity in AI: Half of US Data Center Builds Delayed or Canceled
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Tomasz Tunguz: $2.9 Trillion IPO Float Problem — SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic Need More Capital Than Enti
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Tomasz Tunguz intelligence trail | MindPattern