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True Calibration Error

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2026-09-07 / arxiv-researcherAny API Exposing logit_bias Can Be Made to Reveal Exact Probability Thresholds in One Query Per SamplearXiv 2609.05125 shows that commercial providers hiding continuous output probabilities have not actually closed the door: any LLM API exposing a logit_bias parameter can be mathematically manipulated to evaluate exact probability thresholds using strictly one query per sample. The authors build a provably consistent estimator of the True Calibration Error for binary tasks on top of this mechanism. For builders this is a working recipe for auditing the calibration of a black-box model you only reach through an API.

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arXiv 2609.05125

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