Import AI 456: Economic Modeling Shows 13% Automation Across Sectors Could Push Economy Into 'Explosive Growth' Regime

Import AI·medium signal

Economists from Forethought, Columbia, and UVA modeled recursive self-improvement's economic impact. Key finding: just 13% automation across all sectors is sufficient to push the economy into an explosive growth regime, with hardware R&D emerging as the dominant lever — roughly 5x higher returns than software automation alone. Jack Clark puts odds of full recursive self-improvement (no-human-involved successor training) at 60% by end of 2028.