Matthew Berman: 'We Only Have 2 Years' — AGI Timeline Analysis as AI-2027 Scenario Debates Intensify

Matthew Berman (YouTube) / AI Futures Blog·medium signal

Matthew Berman's latest video (May 14) examines accelerating AGI timelines, coinciding with renewed debate around the AI-2027 scenario. The AI Futures blog's recent grading of AI-2027 predictions found real-world progress running at roughly 65% of the scenario's predicted pace, with most qualitative predictions on track but quantitative metrics lagging. This has shifted the original 2027 AGI forecast to approximately 2028-2030, with co-author Daniel Kokotajlo now placing his median at ~2030.