Jamin Ball argues open weights and Nvidia challengers both win because the pie outgrows the mix shift

Clouded Judgement (Jamin Ball)·medium signal

Clouded Judgement's July 24 issue makes the case that during exponential growth phases 'the size of the pie is growing much faster than mix shift is changing,' so open-weight models can take share from OpenAI and Anthropic while all categories grow in absolute dollars. The same logic applies to Nvidia versus custom silicon from Etched, Positron, and MatX. Cloud software comps cited: median NTM revenue multiple 3.3x, high-growth median 18.4x, median net retention 110%, median FCF margin 21%, median NTM growth 12%.