SemiAnalysis: PJM Burned $12B of Ratepayer Money on a Reserve Model That Ignores Winter Gas Uprates — the Grid Bill AI Data Centers Are Landing On

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SemiAnalysis's August 16 teardown (53 points on HN) identifies two flaws in PJM's Reserve Requirement Study: it applies summer temperature derates to gas turbines but ignores that colder, denser winter air lets plants produce up to 25% more power, and it still uses 2013–2022 failure data despite 400+ of PJM's ~700 gas plants winterizing after Storm Elliott. The estimated waste is $6.7B in the 2025/26 auction and $4.9B in 2026/27 — roughly $12B — for capacity that could have been met with 14–800 MW less. Capacity prices went from $28.92/MW-day to $270–333/MW-day, the context for every AI data-center siting decision in the region.