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A 117-point spread in 2026 software returns sorts almost entirely by billing model, not by AI story
IGV closed 3 September at $106.81, about 40% above its April low of roughly $74, and XSW hit an all-time high in late August, so the index-level recovery from the $2 trillion drawdown is nearly complete. The winners are consumption-priced: CrowdStrike +83.4% YTD on $5.84B ARR growing 25%, Twilio +73.8%, Snowflake +73.1% on $1.49B product revenue growing 37%, Datadog +53.9%. The losers are seat-priced: HubSpot -33.3% with net adds slipping to 7,000 against 9,000-10,000 expected, monday.com -35.5%, and Figma -35.1% despite growing fastest in the group at 48%.
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