The Agentic SDLC Throughput Paradox: Coding Gains Attenuate Sharply Between Writing Code and Shipping It

arXiv 2609.04681·medium signalXBlueskyLinkedInCopy link

arXiv 2609.04681 synthesizes peer-reviewed SE research, university studies, benchmark audits, production reports from major technology companies, developer telemetry and cost-management evidence released from 2024 through September 2026, claiming no new experiments of its own. It names four concepts: the Agentic SDLC Throughput Paradox, Production-Qualified Change, the Verification Tax, and an Agentic SDLC Control Plane that allocates autonomy subject to cost and reliability. The economic argument is the sharpest part: costs shift from predictable per-seat licensing to variable token, tool, sandbox, CI and rework spend, which is the line item most teams are not budgeting.