FinancialContent: AI-Driven SaaS Erosion Triggers $75-120B Default Alarm in the $3T Private Credit Market
FinancialContent·high signal
UBS analyst Matthew Mish warns that PE sponsors leveraged software acquisitions with private credit over the past five years, and AI-driven SaaS revenue erosion now threatens those loan books. His baseline scenario projects $75-120B in fresh defaults across leveraged loans and private credit by end of 2026 if SaaS churn accelerates as modeled. Private credit stocks already fell sharply in February on exposure fears, and the contagion narrative is spreading from software equity into credit markets.