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Armin Ronacher's P(doom) Rebuttal: Pacing Fails Because Only Two Labs Matter and METR Is Tied to Both
Ronacher answered the Amodei essay on September 12, arguing the pacing proposal is unenforceable because OpenAI and Anthropic are the only two companies that count and the proposed overseer, METR, has ties to both, so the independence the scheme rests on does not exist. He cites Amodei's own stated p(doom) of 10-25% and an OpenAI employee above 10%, and puts OpenAI's burn at '18 million USD' casually spent. His alternative is forced open weights: 'a powerful technology that is out there for everyone to use comes with built-in pacing,' and he places the real failure on regulation, not on release speed.
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