Markets
Figma Has Lost 81% of Peak Value — Oppenheimer Warns AI Disruption Risk Not Priced In, Gross Margins Collapsing from 92% to 82%
Figma IPO'd at $33 in July 2025, popped to $68B on day one, and now trades around $30 — an 81% decline from its August peak. Oppenheimer initiated coverage with a Perform rating, flagging that AI disruption risk is still underpriced. Adobe Firefly commands 29% of the AI design market vs Figma Make's 2%. Non-GAAP gross margin fell from 92% in 2024 to 82.4% in 2025 as AI infrastructure costs surged, with operating margin guided to compress to ~8% in 2026. The capital structure story: Figma simply cannot match Adobe and Microsoft's AI spend.
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