Ajeya Cotra Updates AI Timelines: METR Measures Opus 4.6 at 12-Hour Time Horizon, Predicts 100+ Hours by Year-End

Import AI / Planned Obsolescence·high signal

METR corrected a modeling bug on March 3 reducing Opus 4.6's measured 50% time horizon from 14.5 to 12 hours (95% CI: 6-98h) on software tasks. Ajeya Cotra, now at METR, writes her January forecasts for software engineering capabilities already feel 'much too conservative' and predicts agents will exceed 100-hour time horizons on METR's tasks by end of 2026. Import AI #448 covered the implications for AI R&D automation timelines.