Fortune: One AI Bubble Already Burst, But a 'Rare' Earnings Bubble Is Still Growing — $539B Capex and 498 Unicorns at Risk
Fortune·high signal
Capital Economics' John Higgins warns that while the AI stock valuation bubble has deflated (tech P/E ratio at lowest since pandemic), a rare 'earnings bubble' is growing where the massive profits themselves may be unsustainable. With $539B in projected 2026 AI capex, 498 AI unicorns at $2.7T combined valuation, and geopolitical risks (Iran war halting Qatar's helium supply — one-third of global chip manufacturing input), the structural risks are compounding. OpenAI's valuation surged from $500B to $730B in five months while adoption may be stalling from employee displacement anxiety.