Quantum Threat Timeline Compresses — Google Research Shows ECC Breakable with 20x Fewer Qubits Than Previously Estimated

The Quantum Insider·high signal

Google Quantum AI published research showing elliptic curve cryptography protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most digital infrastructure could be broken with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits — a 20-fold reduction from the previous 9 million qubit estimate. A separate Caltech/Oratomic paper found it could be done with as few as 10,000 qubits. Under idealized conditions, Google estimates a 41% probability a quantum computer could derive a private key before a Bitcoin transaction confirms, with key derivation possible in as little as 9 minutes.