Kokotajlo and Lifland Shorten AI Timelines by ~1.5 Years: Automated Coder Median Now Mid-2028 (Kokotajlo), Mid-2030 (Lifland)

AI Futures Project / r/singularity (65↑, 29cmts)·medium signal

Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland of the AI Futures Project published their Q1 2026 timelines update, shortening predictions by approximately 1.5 years. Kokotajlo's Automated Coder median moved from late 2029 to mid-2028; Lifland's from early 2032 to mid-2030. Key drivers: METR time horizon doubling revised from 5.5 months to 4 months, faster-than-expected progress in agentic coding, and new data from Gemini 3, GPT-5.2, and Claude Opus 4.6 evaluations. They note 'progress in agentic coding has been faster than we expected over the last 3-5 months.'