Markets
Research Affiliates Publishes Horizon-Stratified AI SaaS Risk Framework: Cyclical, Secular, and Super Secular
Research Affiliates' April 15 analysis divides AI-related SaaS risks across three time horizons: cyclical (12 months — seat compression and valuation multiple compression), secular (1-5 years — architectural displacement by agentic AI, commoditization of SaaS functionality, regulatory costs), and super secular (5+ years — fundamental restructuring of how software is delivered). The framework quantifies that roughly $2T in software market cap evaporated in the first two months of 2026 alone, excluding the Iran war's separate impact on risk assets.
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