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Public story · 2026-07-19 · high
Jason Lemkin says the split between winners and losers comes down to whether AI adds new customers or just bigger invoices from old ones.
Why now: Covered in SaaStr's July 19 breakdown of the spend versus valuation paradox.
Software spend climbed 15% to $1.4 trillion even as half of SaaS trades below the S&P, per Jason Lemkin's SaaStr breakdown. The split decides whether a company's growth re-accelerates, like Palantir's jump from 27% to 85%, or stalls out with no AI edge at all.
Lemkin sorts SaaS into four buckets. Bucket one is AI-native with no legacy constraints: Harvey, Artisan, Monaco. Pre-AI companies catching a real AI tailwind land in bucket two, among them Twilio, WorkOS, and RevenueCat. Atlassian sits in bucket three: AI-driven expansion revenue with no new logos. A fourth bucket gets no AI advantage at all.
Twilio's growth went from roughly 4% to 20% on the same tailwind. SaaStr applied the same test to itself: the company went from more than 20 employees to three humans plus 21 AI agents. That's the org chart, not a metaphor.
The question travels past any single earnings call: is AI bringing new customers, or just bigger invoices from old ones? Atlassian is the trap case. Expansion revenue can make a growth chart look healthy while new-logo acquisition stalls. Eventually the market prices that gap in.
For anyone evaluating a SaaS company, that's the actual interview question. Which bucket does the AI story land in, and does the new-logo count back it up? A re-accelerating growth rate like Palantir's or Twilio's is hard to fake. Expansion revenue without new logos is easy to mistake for the same thing.
Each link below shares sources, entities, or timing with this story.
SaaStr uses Artisan / Shared entities / Same source domain / Shared topic / Tension
Linked by a graph relationship (SaaStr uses Artisan); both cover Atlassian, SaaStr, Twilio; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).
SaaStr uses Artisan / Shared entities / Same source domain / Shared topic / Earlier coverage
Linked by a graph relationship (SaaStr uses Artisan); both cover Artisan, Lemkin, SaaStr; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).
SaaStr uses Artisan / Shared entities / Same source domain / Earlier coverage
Linked by a graph relationship (SaaStr uses Artisan); both cover Artisan, Monaco, SaaStr; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).
SaaStr uses Artisan / Shared entities / Same source domain / Shared topic / Earlier coverage
Linked by a graph relationship (SaaStr uses Artisan); both cover Monaco, SaaStr; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).
Linked by a graph relationship (SaaStr uses Artisan); both cover Atlassian, SaaStr; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).
SaaStr uses Artisan / Shared entities / Same source domain / Earlier coverage / Tension
Linked by a graph relationship (SaaStr uses Artisan); both cover Monaco, SaaStr; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).
SaaStr uses Artisan / Shared entity: SaaStr / Same source domain / Shared topic / Earlier coverage
Linked by a graph relationship (SaaStr uses Artisan); both cover SaaStr; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).
Harvey uses Claude / Shared entities / Same source domain / Earlier coverage
Linked by a graph relationship (Harvey uses Claude); both cover Monaco, SaaStr; reported by the same outlet (saastr.com).