Altman blames economic inertia for missed AI timelines

Sam Altman admitted he got AI's economic disruption wrong, according to comments posted to r/singularity on August 24. He'd expected GPT-4, released in 2023, to put software businesses "up for grabs right away." Three years later, that hasn't happened. The gap matters for software incumbents and investors who priced fast AI disruption into a plan or a valuation. The CEO of the company that built the model meant to cause that disruption now says it's still not on schedule.

"People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way," Altman said. His conclusion: "we've all been too ambitious on timelines."

The top reply on that thread points to Solow's 1987 productivity paradox, the observation that computers showed up everywhere except the productivity statistics. Altman's explanation for AI lines up with it. The capability arrived on schedule, the buying habits didn't.