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Public story · 2026-08-26 · high
The shortfall traces to slower hiring, and experienced workers in the same occupations show no comparable drop.
Why now: The study's August 2026 update extends its payroll data through June 2026.
Entry-level hiring in AI-exposed occupations has fallen 19% below trend, up from 13% a year earlier, according to Stanford's Canaries in the Coal Mine study. The gap sits entirely in hiring, not separations. That narrows the door for 22-to-25-year-olds trying to break into these fields while leaving everyone already working in them untouched.
Experienced workers in the same exposed occupations show no comparable gap, and the researchers find no economy-wide displacement, using ADP payroll data through June 2026.
Firms aren't cutting existing AI-exposed roles. They're opening fewer new ones, and the entry point for young workers has been closing over the past year without one headline attached to it.
A company that stops backfilling junior roles never shows up in a layoff headline. Watch entry-level postings and new-grad offer rates next, since separations data won't catch a hiring freeze.
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Stanford benchmarked against Gemini
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against Gemini).
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against Gemini).
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against Gemini).
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against Gemini).
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against Gemini).
Stanford benchmarked against ChatGPT
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against ChatGPT).
Stanford benchmarked against Gemini
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against Gemini).
Linked by a graph relationship (Stanford benchmarked against Gemini).