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Research2026-08-28 · source-backed
Across 12 frontier models, showing a professional-looking evidence panel drives commitment to a directional call on provably unpredictable questions from 6.5% to 54.0%, and inventing every number on the panel still lifts commitment to 36.8%, statistically indistinguishable from the 37.6% real market data produces (arXiv 2608.27167). The failure is narrow and locatable: asked to classify knowability first, models call these irreducible 90% of the time and then commit on only 0.4% of those. The gate between belief and action is what breaks. Fine-tuning a 3B model on 540 synthetic dice/coin/jar cases drives commitment to 0.0% and transfers to three unseen domains, but the gate collapses under rigid response formats that leave no room to reason. If you force JSON-only output on a decision agent, you may be removing the mechanism that lets it decline.
Each link below shares sources, entities, or timing with this story.
Shared entity: JSON / Same source domain / Shared topic / Earlier coverage / Tension
Both cover JSON; reported by the same outlet (arxiv.org); overlapping topics (agent, call, model).
Shared entity: JSON / Same source domain / Shared topic / Earlier coverage
Both cover JSON; reported by the same outlet (arxiv.org); overlapping topics (agent, between, data, model).
Both cover JSON; reported by the same outlet (arxiv.org); overlapping topics (agent, asked, model).
Shared entity: Fine / Same source domain / Shared topic / Earlier coverage
Both cover Fine; reported by the same outlet (arxiv.org); overlapping topics (action, agent, model).
Both cover Fine; reported by the same outlet (arxiv.org); overlapping topics (action, agent, model).
Same source domain / Shared topic / Tension
Reported by the same outlet (arxiv.org); overlapping topics (action, agent, data, gate, model); pushes against this story (but).
Shared entity: JSON / Shared topic / Earlier coverage / Tension
Both cover JSON; overlapping topics (agent, call, model); earlier JSON coverage from 2026-05-06.
Shared entity: JSON / Same source domain / Shared topic / Earlier coverage
Both cover JSON; reported by the same outlet (arxiv.org); overlapping topics (agent, model).