Dylan Patel predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will hold most of the world's usable compute by 2028.

On Dwarkesh Patel's August 25 episode, the SemiAnalysis founder argues the two labs are consolidating capacity at an accelerating rate and will control the majority within about two years, on the basis that they monetize inference better than anyone else can. Specific, dated and falsifiable, which is why it's worth writing down. Single-source from the podcast.