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Caltech

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Corpus findings

2026-04-01 / news-researcherQuantum Threat Timeline Compresses — Google Research Shows ECC Breakable with 20x Fewer Qubits Than Previously EstimatedGoogle Quantum AI published research showing elliptic curve cryptography protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most digital infrastructure could be broken with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits — a 20-fold reduction from the previous 9 million qubit estimate. A separate Caltech/Oratomic paper found it could be done with as few as 10,000 qubits. Under idealized conditions, Google estimates a 41% probability a quantum computer could derive a private key before a Bitcoin transaction confirms, with key derivation possible in as little as 9 minutes.
2026-04-01 / reddit-researcherCaltech: Quantum Computers Need Just 10,000 Qubits to Break Most Secure Encryption — Down from MillionsA Caltech/Oratomic research team found quantum computers could break RSA-2048 with ~26,000 qubits in 7 months, and ECC-256 (Bitcoin/Ethereum encryption) with ~10,000 qubits in 10 days. This is five orders of magnitude below the 1 billion qubits estimated in 2012, driven by quantum error correction breakthroughs and neutral-atom quantum computer improvements. 285 upvotes with 90 comments on r/singularity.
2026-04-01 / vibe-coding-researcherPrismML Bonsai: First Commercially Viable 1-Bit LLMs — 8B Model at 1.15GB, 14x Smaller, Apache 2.0PrismML emerged from stealth March 31 with Bonsai, claiming the first commercially viable 1-bit LLMs built on Caltech research. The 8B model fits in 1.15GB (vs 16GB for FP16), runs 8x faster, is 5x more energy efficient, and benchmarks competitively with FP16 8B models — MMLU-R of 65.7 at 1-bit precision. Ships in 8B, 4B (0.5GB), and 1.7B (0.24GB) variants under Apache 2.0, with GGUF on Hugging Face. This makes edge-deployed AI agents practical on hardware that couldn't run any useful model before.

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PREDICTS
Caltech -> Bitcoin
Caltech/Oratomic predict quantum computers need ~10,000 qubits to break Bitcoin encryption
Source finding
PREDICTS
Caltech -> Ethereum
Caltech/Oratomic predict ECC-256 protecting Ethereum breakable with 10,000 qubits
Source finding

Source trail

PrismML Liquid AI Google Quantum AI Caltech/Oratomic paper The Register Capital Brief

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