Specification cost, not capability, is the practitioner bear case.

Jay Kruer's September 15 post took 475 points and 624 comments. He concedes the Navier-Stokes result as a show of force and argues the constraint elsewhere is structural: models generalize narrowly enough that small perturbations inside a covered task class cause outright failure or reward hacking, and avoiding that requires rigorous expert-written specifications from an intersection of domain and specification experts he calls "ludicrously small." Expert review as the fallback doesn't scale and is manipulable, citing the xz backdoor. His conclusion is that only three firm types can deploy autonomy today: those where failure is cheap, those with narrow guardrailed tasks, and those already invested in formal specification. I don't fully buy the third category as a moat, but the specification-cost framing is the strongest bear argument I've read this quarter, and it's the same constraint OpenSpec and Affora are both circling from opposite ends.