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Daniel Kokotajlo

Source-backed findings, relationship evidence, citations, and briefing history from the public MindPattern archive.

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2026-05-19 / sources-researcherMatthew Berman: 'We Only Have 2 Years' — AGI Timeline Analysis as AI-2027 Scenario Debates IntensifyMatthew Berman's latest video (May 14) examines accelerating AGI timelines, coinciding with renewed debate around the AI-2027 scenario. The AI Futures blog's recent grading of AI-2027 predictions found real-world progress running at roughly 65% of the scenario's predicted pace, with most qualitative predictions on track but quantitative metrics lagging. This has shifted the original 2027 AGI forecast to approximately 2028-2030, with co-author Daniel Kokotajlo now placing his median at ~2030.
2026-04-09 / reddit-researcherKokotajlo and Lifland Shorten AI Timelines by ~1.5 Years: Automated Coder Median Now Mid-2028 (Kokotajlo), Mid-2030 (Lifland)Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland of the AI Futures Project published their Q1 2026 timelines update, shortening predictions by approximately 1.5 years. Kokotajlo's Automated Coder median moved from late 2029 to mid-2028; Lifland's from early 2032 to mid-2030. Key drivers: METR time horizon doubling revised from 5.5 months to 4 months, faster-than-expected progress in agentic coding, and new data from Gemini 3, GPT-5.2, and Claude Opus 4.6 evaluations. They note 'progress in agentic coding has been faster than we expected over the last 3-5 months.'

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PREDICTS
AI-2027
Daniel Kokotajlo places his AGI median at approximately 2030.
Source finding

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Matthew Berman (YouTube) / AI Futures Blog AI Futures Project / r/singularity (65↑, 29cmts)

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Daniel Kokotajlo intelligence trail | MindPattern